Commit forecast
In short
A commit forecast is the portion of a sales forecast that a rep or manager commits to delivering in a period. It includes only deals judged very likely to close, and it is the number leadership plans around.
It is one category in a forecast category system, alongside best case and pipeline. The commit is meant to be conservative: missing it repeatedly signals a forecasting problem, not just bad luck.
How a commit differs from other categories
Names and definitions vary by company, so write down what each category requires.
- Commit: Deals the owner is confident will close in the period, usually with a verified buyer decision path.
- Best case: Deals that could close if things go well, but carry real uncertainty.
- Pipeline: Open deals with no strong signal of closing in this period.
- Closed: Deals already won and counted.
What qualifies a deal for commit
Teams set explicit entry criteria rather than relying on gut feel. Typical checks include:
- The economic buyer has been engaged and agrees to the plan.
- Budget is confirmed and procurement or legal steps are mapped.
- A mutual close plan with dates exists.
- Recent activity shows the deal is moving, not stalled.
Using the commit well
Measure accuracy
Compare each rep's commit with what actually closed. Say a rep commits 100,000 and closes 70,000 across several quarters. Managers can then discount that rep's calls or coach on deal qualification.
Inspect, do not just collect
In forecast reviews, ask what evidence supports each committed deal. Challenge deals with one contact, no scheduled next step, or slipping dates.
Lock the commit
Snapshot the commit at set points, such as the start of the month, so you can compare the forecast with the result without hindsight.
Common mistakes
- Sandbagging: Holding back deals to beat the number hides real pipeline from planning.
- Happy ears: Committing deals based on a friendly contact with no authority.
- Vague criteria: If anyone can define commit differently, totals cannot be compared across teams.
Commit forecast FAQs
What is a commit forecast?
A commit forecast is the revenue a rep or manager commits to closing in a given period. It contains only deals considered highly likely to close, and it is the number the business uses for planning and tracking performance against targets.
What is the difference between commit and best case in a forecast?
Commit holds deals the owner is confident will close in the period. Best case adds deals that could close if conditions go well but carry meaningful risk. Commit is the conservative promise; best case shows the upside range.
How do you decide which deals go in the commit forecast?
Use written entry criteria, such as an engaged economic buyer, confirmed budget, a mapped procurement process, a dated mutual close plan, and recent buyer activity. Deals that fail any check should stay in best case or pipeline.
How do you measure commit forecast accuracy?
Compare the committed amount, recorded at a fixed snapshot date, with the revenue actually closed in the period. Track the gap per rep and per team over several periods to spot consistent over-committing or sandbagging.
