Weighted pipeline
In short
Weighted pipeline is the total value of open deals after each deal is multiplied by its probability of closing. A 100,000 deal with a 30 percent probability contributes 30,000 to the weighted total.
It gives a probability-adjusted estimate of future revenue. It differs from total pipeline, which counts every open deal at full value, and from a commit forecast, which is the set of deals a rep or manager is confident will close.
How to calculate it
For each open opportunity, multiply the amount by the probability linked to its stage. Add the results.
- Deal A: 50,000 at 20 percent in discovery contributes 10,000.
- Deal B: 80,000 at 50 percent in proposal contributes 40,000.
- Deal C: 30,000 at 80 percent in negotiation contributes 24,000.
Reading the example
Total pipeline for these three deals is 160,000, but weighted pipeline is 74,000. These figures are illustrative only. The gap shows why raw totals overstate what will probably close.
Setting good probabilities
Use your own history
Calculate how often deals that reached each stage actually closed over recent quarters. Default CRM percentages are placeholders, not facts about your business.
Segment where behavior differs
Enterprise and small-business deals, or new business and expansion, often convert at different rates. Separate probabilities by segment when you have enough data.
Refresh regularly
Review stage probabilities every quarter and after changes to your process or target market.
Limits of weighted pipeline
- Averages hide single deals: A deal either closes or it does not; the weighted number is a statistical estimate across many deals.
- Small samples: With only a handful of deals, weighting is noisy.
- Stage is not the whole story: Two deals in the same stage can differ in buyer engagement and timing.
Common mistakes
- Trusting default percentages: They rarely match actual conversion in your pipeline.
- Stale stages: If reps do not update stages, the weighting is wrong.
- Using it as a commitment: Pair it with rep judgment and a commit view when forecasting.
Weighted pipeline FAQs
What is weighted pipeline?
Weighted pipeline is the sum of open deal values, each multiplied by its probability of closing. It estimates expected revenue more realistically than raw pipeline, which counts every open deal at its full amount.
How do you calculate weighted pipeline?
Multiply each open opportunity's amount by the closing probability for its stage, then add the results. For example, a 50,000 deal at 20 percent adds 10,000. Repeat for every deal and total them.
What is the difference between weighted pipeline and total pipeline?
Total pipeline adds up every open deal at full value. Weighted pipeline adjusts each deal by its chance of closing, so it is always lower and better reflects expected revenue.
How accurate is a weighted pipeline forecast?
Accuracy depends on whether stage probabilities reflect your real conversion history and whether reps keep stages current. It works better with many deals than few, and is best combined with rep judgment and a commit view.
